DRC Expected to Reassess Cobalt Export Suspension at Council of Ministers Meeting
The Congolese government is expected to review its cobalt export suspension—renewed last June—at the conclusion of the 59th Council of Ministers meeting this Friday. Mining expert Léonide Mupepele warns that the policy is no longer delivering benefits to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Mupepele argues that while the initial suspension boosted cobalt prices significantly, subsequent extensions have had little effect. “The first time, prices jumped from $21,000 per tonne to $33,000, a gain of $13,000.
But after the June renewal, prices have risen by only around $1,000. Today cobalt trades between $34,000 and $34,500 per tonne. Renewing the suspension again won’t change much,” he said.
He noted that while current prices are strong, they fall far short of past highs exceeding $100,000 per tonne. He cautioned that aiming for such levels could backfire, as excessively high prices would push manufacturers to seek alternative materials.
Mupepele also highlighted the structural decline in cobalt demand within the electric vehicle (EV) sector. Battery chemistries have shifted away from cobalt-heavy formulations, with today’s cells using much higher nickel content.
“In the past, batteries used nearly equal proportions of nickel, manganese, and cobalt. Now it’s around 8 parts nickel, 1 part manganese, and 1 part cobalt. This significantly reduces cobalt demand,” he explained.
While urging the government to lift the suspension, Mupepele emphasized the need for sustainable measures from the regulatory authority (ARECOMS) to prevent a market crash once withheld stockpiles are released. “Markets know the stockpiled cobalt is still there. If exports resume without safeguards, prices could collapse,” he warned.
He also questioned the effectiveness of proposed quota systems to manage stockpile releases, noting that mining companies rarely comply fully with such restrictions. Instead, he urged authorities to design long-term solutions that gradually remove excess cobalt from the market without flooding supply.
“The real challenge is how to clear company stockpiles without destabilizing prices. With careful planning and expert input, the DRC can avoid triggering an uncontrollable downturn,” he concluded.
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