Chile’s Cochilco Projects Record Copper Prices for 2025-2026 as Production Struggles
Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to unprecedented levels on Wednesday, citing ongoing production constraints.
Cochilco now expects average copper prices to reach $4.45 per pound in 2025 and $4.55 per pound in 2026, up from its previous estimate of $4.30 per pound for both years.
These projections represent the highest copper price forecasts in Cochilco’s history. Victor Garay, Cochilco’s mining market coordinator, noted that prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory at least until 2030, as supply growth continues to lag behind demand.
However, Garay also highlighted persistent risks, including potential tariff changes or shifts in demand trends, which could impact the market.
Production Constraints Driving Price Hike
The price revision follows supply challenges in Chile, the world’s top copper producer. Cochilco cited several factors behind the constrained output:
Weak performance at the Collahuasi mine, a joint venture between Anglo American and Glencore.
Lower production at Anglo American Sur.
An accident at Codelco’s flagship El Teniente mine, which temporarily reduced output.
As a result, Cochilco now expects Chilean copper production to increase only 0.1% in 2025 to 5.51 million metric tons, followed by a 2.5% rise in 2026 to 5.6 million metric tons.
Garay added that other operations are expected to compensate for reduced output at El Teniente, with Chile projected to reach 5.9 million metric tons by 2027.
Despite the production challenges, Cochilco expects copper demand to continue growing, though at a slower pace than in previous years. The combination of constrained supply and steady demand is a key factor behind the record-high price forecasts.
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