China is set to increase its imports of off-exchange refined copper this year, driven by soaring production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and concerns over potential supply disruptions from U.S. scrap restrictions, according to analysts and traders.
The surge highlights China’s growing dependence on Congolese refined copper, which now accounts for a significant share of its imports.
The DRC, bolstered by years of Chinese investment in mining, has become the world’s second-largest copper producer.
Much of its exports to China consist of equivalent grade (EQ) copper—metal that meets exchange quality standards but is not registered with trading platforms like the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). This makes EQ copper more affordable than registered copper, despite having the same purity level.
Six analysts and traders in China’s copper market expect EQ copper’s import volume and market share to rise further this year.
In 2023, EQ copper made up 62% of China’s refined copper imports, up from just under half in 2022, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).
The global refined copper market remains tight, with demand outpacing supply in nine out of twelve months in 2024, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Citigroup projects a supply deficit of 136,000 metric tons in 2025.
EQ copper’s lower price makes it especially attractive to small and mid-sized Chinese wire and rod manufacturers struggling with high refined copper costs. Prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have risen 9% since the start of 2024 and are up 18% year-over-year.
“EQ copper has gained popularity in China because it offers the same quality as registered brands at a lower price,” a copper trader noted.
Nearly 75% of Congo’s two million tons of refined copper output was shipped to China last year, according to data from LSEG and Chinese customs, with most of it being EQ copper. Imports from the DRC in 2024 were seven times higher than in 2019.
As of March 4, Fastmarkets reported that EQ copper with a minimum purity of 99.9935% carried a premium of $3-$15 per ton over LME prices, compared to $50-$80 per ton for registered copper.
This price difference reflects the lack of registration fees and the premium that exchange-approved copper commands.
Traders report no known quality issues with EQ copper, reinforcing its appeal as a cost-effective alternative.
China’s increasing reliance on Congolese copper could help offset a potential decline in U.S. scrap imports, as President Donald Trump’s tariff probe into copper threatens to disrupt supply chains and push metal prices higher. The U.S. accounted for nearly 440,000 tons—one-fifth—of China’s copper scrap imports in 2023.
However, import volumes are expected to fall, with some traders already pausing purchases due to trade war concerns.
“The supply of refined copper, including scrap, concentrate, anode, and blister, remains tight,” said Jonathan Barnes, principal analyst at Project Blue. “We expect higher imports of refined copper, particularly EQ copper, to help compensate for this shortfall.”
With global supply constraints and escalating trade tensions, China’s pivot toward Congolese EQ copper is set to continue shaping the refined copper market in the coming years.
