In February 2025, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) made a bold move by suspending cobalt exports for four months.
The decision, announced by the Strategic Mineral Substances Market Regulatory and Control Authority (ARCOMS), aimed to stabilize the oversupplied market and increase national revenue from this critical mineral.
The impact was immediate. Within just one week, cobalt prices soared by 27% on global markets.
By May 2025, the price had climbed to USD 33,630.99 per tonne—up from USD 30,000—underscoring the market’s heavy reliance on Congolese supply.
According to the Cobalt Institute, demand for cobalt could grow by more than 10% in 2025, driven primarily by the electric vehicle (EV) sector.
Global demand is projected to reach 227,000 tonnes, up from a 4% increase in 2024 to an estimated 11% surge this year.
Strong EV sales in the first quarter of 2025—up 22% in Europe, 16% in the United States, and 36% in China—have further strained supply chains.
The DRC’s export suspension has reaffirmed its pivotal role in the cobalt supply chain. Holding around 70% of the world’s reserves, the country is by far the largest producer globally.
While Zambia, South Africa, and others also contribute to global cobalt production, their combined output remains insufficient to meet growing demand sustainably.
A study by Project Blue revealed that while China and Malaysia could temporarily fill the gap during the four-month suspension, the global market cannot function efficiently without continued supply from the DRC.
As May progresses, President Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi has stated that the government will conduct a full assessment to determine whether the suspension should be extended.
The administration also announced a coordinated communication strategy around the export pause and is exploring Indonesia’s regulatory model—the world’s second-largest cobalt producer—for insights into managing global supply more effectively.
Should the suspension continue, experts warn of potential production slowdowns in electric vehicle manufacturing and broader industrial disruption, underscoring the DRC’s unmatched leverage in the global cobalt market.
