China’s refined nickel exports could nearly triple in 2025 as domestic overcapacity fuels another surplus that global markets must absorb.
After becoming a net exporter of refined nickel for the first time in 2024—shipping 25,000 tonnes—China is projected to export up to 70,000 tonnes this year, according to Mysteel Global. This adds nickel to the growing list of commodities China overproduces and exports to manage excess supply.
For over a decade, global markets have grappled with massive outflows of Chinese steel and aluminum, leading to numerous anti-dumping measures.
Meanwhile, a slowing economy and ongoing smelter expansions have driven refined copper exports to record levels.
Like copper, nickel is a strategic metal for China’s energy transition, and Beijing has prioritized maintaining ample supply. Refined nickel production surged 36% to 335,000 tonnes in 2024, according to Mysteel.
Despite severe overcapacity, local authorities have little incentive to curb production as they strive to meet economic growth targets.
Refined nickel prices, which are tied to the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark, have plunged by half over the past two years due to surging Indonesian production and weaker demand.
While Indonesia has announced plans to reduce output, global markets are expected to remain oversupplied, according to Macquarie Group.
The sharp rise in Chinese exports is increasing LME warehouse stockpiles and keeping prices under pressure, Mysteel analyst Fan Jianyuan noted.
LME nickel inventories have more than doubled over the past year to nearly 176,000 tonnes, with about 80% stored in Asian warehouses.
However, refined nickel exports may attract less scrutiny from China’s trade partners compared to other metals, as much of the world’s nickel supply comes in the form of lower-grade nickel pig iron, which does not meet LME standards.
