The global cobalt market is projected to experience a notable surplus in 2024, with the Cobalt Institute forecasting a surplus of 37,000 tonnes.
This outlook aligns with recent statements from CMOC, the world’s largest cobalt producer, which noted a slowing rate of supply growth in the latter half of the year.
Key contributors to this surplus are increased production from the Kisanfu mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), set to add an additional 23,000 tonnes over 2023 levels, and a 14,000-tonne increase from the Tenke Fungurume mine, also managed by CMOC.
Declining Demand and Price Pressure
Despite this boost in supply, demand is tapering, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted a slowdown in EV sales in 2024, which is expected to impact cobalt prices.
Already, cobalt prices on the London Metal Exchange have dropped 20% since January 2024, now hovering around $24,300 per tonne.
Price Projections
Fitch Ratings anticipates cobalt prices will range between $25,000 and $26,000 per tonne through 2027—well below the peak prices of over $80,000 per tonne seen in 2022.
The Cobalt Institute’s projections indicate that the surplus may persist through 2025, with potential excess extending through 2028.
This market shift may present investment opportunities, but it also poses challenges for producers, who must adapt to evolving demand and economic conditions.
