The market value of critical minerals is projected to rise from its current $325 billion to $770 billion by 2040 under the Net Zero Emission (NZE) scenario, which aims for carbon neutrality by 2050.
This projection is part of the “Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024,” a study released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on May 17, 2024.
The report attributes the expected increase in market value to the surging global demand for minerals essential for the energy transition, including lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, and rare earth elements. This demand surge is driven by global decarbonization efforts.
Scenarios and Demand Projections
- Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): The IEA anticipates that global demand for critical minerals will double by 2030.
- Net Zero Emission (NZE) Scenario: The demand is expected to triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2040.
Lithium Under the NZE scenario, global demand for lithium could increase nine-fold by 2040, while in the STEPS scenario, it could grow five-fold.
The report underscores the crucial role of these minerals in achieving global energy transition goals and highlights the significant market growth expected in the coming decades.
